Monday, 21 April 2014


"I'm ready"

by Gilbert Cavanaugh

As is often the case with my writing, this will start with John Derbyshire. He introduced me to the concept of writing a column "just so you can forever after refer people to it. ‘Oh, that subject/ point/ complaint/ theory/ argument? I tackled/ countered/ responded to/ exploded/ demolished that back in July '11—here’s the link." Although it is not even close to the summer of 2011, this piece will serve the exact same function as The Derb described.

Is it all going to end?

Will the "hate bubble" burst? Will American military hegemony finally collapsedisintegrate because of something happening somewhere? Or maybe monetizing the debt over and over again coupled with an overblown welfare state will be what causes a collapse of America. Perhaps the flood of non-White immigration – combined with the low birthrate of Whites and the general dysgenic state of the US – will do it. There are of course environmental concerns as well: global warming, peak oil, all that stuff. And of course the outside chance of nuclear war, perhaps brought about by a well-timed terrorist attack.

I've heard it all before.

And right now it's all the rage to talk about the coming end (as always), especially in our circles (as always). From Collapse, to that viral Guardian article, and everything in-between. It could all be true too. After all, you can't falsify a claim that civilization will crumble in a few year, until a few years have passed. Similarly, pointing out that claims of impending doom in the past never proved true doesn't falsify the current claims of impending doom. There was plenty of chatter about Y2K, and nothing happened, but the absence of disaster in the early hours of this millenium does not mean that Helter Skelter isn't around the corner. I (and you!) just don’t know.

It should also be noted that eventually, it will all end. The likelihood (sorry Francis Fukuyama) that a political map of the planet in one billion years will look like today's is close to zero. The chances are slim even one million years out, one thousand years out, and one hundred years out. If anything, the trouble in predicting the future is that there will be too many changes, not too few. My Medieval history is not perfect, so I may be unaware that someone accurately predicted the dissolution of the Lombard League. But I can guarantee that if someone did accurately predict it, they did not accurately predict the dissolution of the Hanseatic League as well, much less the dissolution of the Soviet Union. With every possible outcome, there are an innumerable potential "next"s, so predicting the end of the US is easy when compared to predicting what happens after the end.

However, even when predictions are spot-on, they don’t always do much good. I am always amazed at how William S. Lind wrote in August of 2008:

"Despite the recent drop in the price of oil, the world economy is still sailing into troubled waters. The U.S. credit crisis is intensifying and spreading to Britain. Europe is moving toward recession. The international financial system continues to depend on mountains of debt. If the financial panic the Federal Reserve Bank has thus far managed to stave off materializes, we could witness a meltdown of historic proportions."

From what I understand, that is what happened just a few weeks later, but Mr. Lind did not gain fame or wealth because of it, and I doubt his understanding of what was to come did much to inoculate him from the hardships the Great Recession has brought on us all. The same applies to most any crisis that may or may not be around the corner. You can only stockpile so much food, weapons, water, etc., and your wise investments can only garner you so many returns.

If shit hits the fan, it hits the fan. If World War Three is just around the corner, it doesn't matter if I can predict its start date or not, because nothing will matter, because nuclear holocaust.

Preparing for a crisis in little ways is fine. Buy some guns, some water, learn how to hunt, work out, whatever, do your thing. All of that is useful without an apocalypse anyway. But if you find that a significant chunk of your time on this earth (which is short no matter what happens) is being dedicated to thinking about, writing about, reading about, or preparing for the end, well, get over it. You don't know, and if you do, it probably won’t matter.

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