Tuesday, 2 February 2016


The result in Iowa was extremely tight. The big news is not that Cruz won, though – it’s that the caucus attracted a record evangelical turnout. It’s the result of this turnout that almost guarantees a Trump win in New Hampshire.

Tonight’s real news is that Donald Trump comfortably won the moderate vote and still picked up a great deal of the evangelical vote. Cruz, however, only achieved 9% of the moderates, and 19% of the ‘somewhat conservative’ vote.

The moderates made up 44% of the electorate in 2008 and 41% in 2012. Trump is already winning the moderate vote out of the entire GOP field, as well as inspiring new voters, and sweeping up a huge proportion of evangelicals and ‘somewhat conservative’ voters all at the same time. This full house of voters is what almost guarantees Trump a New Hampshire win, and could ultimately grant him victory – not just in his bid to become GOP nominee, but in his bid to become president and beat Hillary/Sanders.

Cruz is going to have a tough time during the rest of his campaign if he can’t establish himself as a candidate for non-evangelical conservative voters. More worryingly, he’s going to struggle even worse if he can’t appeal to more than 9% of moderate voters nationally in the event that he becomes the GOP nominee.

If Trump can do this well with such a weak ground game, then things look good for him from here. He continues to inspire new voters, he still has an 18% lead in New Hampshire, and the very nature of the state means that Trump has a better chance and Cruz a problem on his hands. NH voters don’t need to register as Republican or Democrat to participate in the primary elections, and it is the independent voters who will decide the primary. Trump is winning these independent voters, Cruz is not.

Let’s also not forget that Iowa has not predicted the presidential candidate since George W Bush – 16 years ago.

From jackbuckby.co.uk


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